Portofino Mint - 25 November 2025

🚀 𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗼 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘁!

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🌍 Cryptos at a glance:

Crypto markets endured another volatile week driven by macro risk-off sentiment, heavy ETF outflows, and aggressive leveraged unwinds.

Bitcoin (BTC)

– Weekly low at $80,600, with a modest weekend recovery to $86,830.
– $903M in Thursday BTC ETF outflows amplified selling pressure.
– >$2B in leveraged liquidations over 24 hours; >42,000 BTC in long liquidations across the week.
– Short-term holder realized losses reached levels last seen during the FTX capitulation.
– BTC broke below the $3T total market-cap threshold, a meaningful technical signal.
– Still below the 360-day MA and recent upward channel; market fragility remains but no full trend reversal yet.

Ethereum (ETH)

– Declined from $3,095 → $2,802.
– Ninth consecutive day of ETH ETF outflows ($261.6M).
– DAT flows provided pockets of support but selling pressure remains elevated.

Majors & Altcoins

– Solana (SOL): Outperformed thanks to ecosystem bids and strong technical flows.
– AI tokens: Volatile swings post-Nvidia earnings.
– RWA tokens: Selective accumulation continues.
– DOGE, LINK, SUI, IMX: Derisking consistent with broader macro uncertainty.

Stablecoins/FX Desk Flows‍

– Stablecoins/FX flows skewed toward off-ramping into fiat amid volatility.

Sentiment

– Extreme fear dominates: CMC Fear & Greed Index at 12, lowest reading of 2025.
– Short-term speculative positioning largely flushed out.

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📊 Macro and Technicals: 

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Macro Drivers

– U.S. September payrolls rose 119K; unemployment at 4.4%.
– Rate-cut odds fell toward ~30% midweek, then surged back toward ~70% after dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams.
– U.S. hours drove almost all negative P&L across BTC and ETH; APAC/EU sessions were broadly stable.

Equities & Risk Appetite

– S&P 500 ended ~4.4% below late-October highs; Nasdaq fragility spilled over into crypto.
– Nvidia earnings triggered brief relief but long-unwinds dominated U.S. hours.

Rates & USD

– Treasuries rallied modestly; USD pause provided short-term relief for risk assets.
– The October–November hawkish shift remains a headwind for crypto risk-taking.

Regional Considerations

– Japan: Yen at multi-decade lows; JGB bear-steepening fuels concerns around long-term debt dynamics.
– Europe/UK: AI-linked corrections and soft UK inflation strengthen the case for BoE easing.
– China: CSI 300 fell 3.8% amid AI profit-taking and pressures from real estate.

Implications for Crypto

– BTC remains highly sensitive to U.S. liquidity and equity weakness.
– Extreme fear readings may allow for stabilization if macro liquidity improves.

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🏢 Industry Developments: 

Fundraising

– Kalshi: Raised $1B, valuing the platform at $11B (Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm, Anthos, Neo).
– Polymarket: Targeting $12B valuation following record monthly volumes.

Staking & ETFs

– BlackRock filed for the first Staked Ethereum ETF, the BlackRock Staked Ethereum Trust.

Exchanges & Derivatives

– Hyperliquid: Launched “Growth Mode,” reducing fees by >90% for new HIP-3 perpetual markets and incentivizing early liquidity formation.

Corporate / IPO

– Kraken: Filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC for a potential IPO at ~$20B valuation.
– Reported 2024 revenue >$1.5B.

Legislation

– Bitcoin for America Act proposed by Rep. Warren Davidson:
– Enables tax payments in BTC
– Establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
– Aims to formalize federal-level Bitcoin integration

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📆 What to Watch Next Week

Macro Events

• MON: Monad Public Mainnet and token launch
• WED: AU Inflation Rate YoY, RBA Smith Speech, US PPI & Retail Sales MoM
• THU: US Core PCE Price Index MoM, US Durable Goods Orders, US Personal Spending

Market Focus

• Liquidity trends in U.S. during Thanksgiving week
• Impact of ETF flows on BTC/ETH price structure
• Sector rotation: Solana, AI-infrastructure, RWA tokens
• Macro risk: Fed commentary, U.S. labor data, global interest rate policy

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📌 Key Takeaway

• Extreme fear dominates crypto sentiment, suggesting short-term positioning is largely cleared.
• Macro and liquidity conditions will determine if stabilization occurs.
• Market remains structurally fragile; careful risk management is advised.

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📅 Missed last week’s update? Catch up on all headlines in the previous Portofino Mint.

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘎𝘗𝘛.

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