Portofino Mint - 17 November 2025

🚀 𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗼 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘁!

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🌍 Cryptos at a glance:

BTC has settled near ~$95,000 after briefly dipping below $94,000 last Friday. Reflecting on the broader yearly trend: BTC opened 2025 at ~92,000, touched a yearly low below 75,000, then surged beyond 126,000. Despite intraday volatility, the market has remained structurally orderly. The market continues to respond to macro uncertainty, reduced liquidity post-Oct 11 leveraged wipeout, and institutional caution heading into year-end.

• BTC: $94,200 after ETF outflows and leveraged liquidations exceeding $1B, primarily on long positions ($819M). BTC-led liquidation contributed $539M. Balanced two-way flows, with selective buy-side accumulation on dips.
• ETH: $3,164, down 9% for the week. Outflows from ETH ETFs totalled $259M. Support appears near $3,100; institutional interest could limit downside. Minimal buy-side interest.
• ‍SOL:  $143, largely flat, supported by BNB Chain expansion news and ongoing selective buy-side interest.
• UNI: +30% following Uniswap Labs’ UNIfication fee switch proposal, with tokenholders potentially benefiting from future protocol fee allocation.
• XRP: +3% after the debut of Canary Capital’s XRPC spot ETF on Nasdaq. ETF volume reached ~$42M in the first 30 minutes, highlighting growing institutional adoption.
• ZEC: +7% post-Winklevoss-backed Cypherpunk Technologies’ $100M Zcash treasury announcement, reflecting renewed interest in privacy-focused digital assets and strategic accumulation by high-profile investors‍
• Alts: ICP, ZK, and LDO attracted selective interest; defensive selling observed in S, WLFI, XPL, ASTER, ADA, and HBAR.
• ‍ Stablecoins : USDC flows remain steady; USDT dominance rose 10.7%, reflecting heightened risk-off positioning.

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📊 Macro and Markets: 

President Trump signed a deal to end the longest U.S. Government shutdown in history (43 days), providing markets with short-term clarity after a prolonged period of uncertainty. While equities experienced some relief, crypto markets remain sensitive to broader sentiment and macro liquidity conditions.

Macro Context:

• Equities: S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 are forming higher lows, suggesting resilience relative to crypto.
• Precious Metals: Gold (+2.1%) and Silver (+4.57%) outperformed, indicating investor preference for safer-haven assets amid market uncertainty.
• Fed Outlook: CME FedWatch pricing shows ~50% probability of a December rate cut. Crypto remains highly sentiment-driven, reacting more acutely to headline risk than equities.‍
• Volatility: Heightened volatility expected until year-end. Key drivers: debt ceiling, Fed guidance, and macro data releases.

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🏢 Investor Positioning & Market Signals: 

• Investors remain cautious, recalibrating exposure after October’s leveraged washout. Position sizing stays disciplined, with selective exposure to high-conviction assets and yield strategies. Liquidity is the main focus, especially across thinner altcoin markets.
• Strategies’ NAV vs. Bitcoin fell below 1 for the first time, raising valuation concerns amid speculative rotation. The move signals caution but not systemic stress, as dip-buying from long-term allocators continues to anchor market stability.

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🪙 Crypto Adoption & Products:

• 21Shares launched two new ETFs offering broad market exposure: one tracking the top 10 crypto assets by market cap, and another offering a diversified basket excluding Bitcoin. These products provide both institutional and retail investors with more accessible avenues for portfolio diversification and strategic allocation.
• Lighter DEX rose to the top of perpetual futures platforms by daily/weekly volume, raising $68M from Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital, signaling momentum in decentralized derivatives.

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🏛️ Regulatory Developments

Brazil’s central bank updated regulations for virtual asset service providers (VASPs), broadening anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) requirements. Effective February 2026, these rules are expected to improve transparency and compliance standards across the local crypto ecosystem.

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📆 Key Themes to Watch Next Week

• ‍Tuesday: AU RBA Meeting Minutes Wed ThuUS FOMC Minutes, Building Permits, Housing Starts‍
• Wednesday: ‍Nvidia Earnings, US Existing Home Sales. US FOMC Minutes, ‍Reserve Bank of Australia Connolly Speech‍
• Friday: US Existing Home Sales, US Consumer Sentiment

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📅 Missed last week’s update? Catch up on all headlines in the previous Portofino Mint.

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘎𝘗𝘛.

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