Portofino Mint - 10 November 2025

🚀 𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗼 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘁!

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🌍 At a glance:

Crypto markets endured a turbulent week, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below $100,000 amid a broader selloff across global risk assets. Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies stole the spotlight, rallying sharply as traders rotated into assets offering greater on-chain confidentiality. Meanwhile, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket recorded record-breaking volumes, highlighting the growing convergence between crypto and speculative markets.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract inflows despite volatility, while macro conditions remain uncertain amid a U.S. government shutdown and persistent weakness across equity markets. Risk sentiment is stabilizing as liquidity expectations improve, though market positioning remains cautious into year-end.

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🏢 Macro and Markets: 

Bitcoin closed the week near $101,700, down from highs above $110,000, while total crypto market capitalization slipped to $3.49 trillion. The selloff was accompanied by elevated liquidations — over $712 million in the past 24 hours alone — reflecting renewed fragility in leveraged positioning.

Ethereum traded around $3,335, up modestly on the day but still down roughly 13% week-on-week, while Solana (SOL), XRP, and BNB each posted small gains of around 2%.

Despite the correction, spot ETF flows remained resilient. Bitcoin ETFs saw $240 million in net inflows on Thursday, bringing total assets to $135.4 billion, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $12.5 million, leaving total net assets at $21.75 billion.

Macro headwinds remain in focus. The U.S. government shutdown has yet to resolve, though Treasury yields have steadied: the 10-year rose slightly to 4.10%, while the 2-year fell to 3.56%. Stock indices extended declines, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Market expectations for a December Fed rate cut are holding near 67%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Liquidity indicators from Capital Wars’ Michael Howell show conditions continuing to ease, suggesting the broader “debasement trade” — rotating into hard assets like BTC and gold — remains structurally supported, even if near-term risk appetite is muted.Gold has held steady through the volatility, maintaining its role as a stabilizer in an otherwise choppy macro backdrop.

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🔄 Risk-Off Rotation and Selective Flows

Spot markets reflected a risk-off rotation as long-term holders trimmed positions and miners added supply. Capital shifted defensively into stablecoins and high-liquidity majors, while smaller alts faced uneven demand.

• BTC briefly fell below $100K, testing support before stabilizing late in the week.
• Stablecoins:
  • USDT/USD flows skewed toward selling (fiat preference).
  • USDC softened as institutional activity eased.
• Flows: BTC and ETH flows were two-way but with a modest buy-side bias, as opportunistic investors accumulated through weakness. SOL activity remained subdued, reflecting lingering caution after prior weeks’ outperformance.
• Altcoins: selective rotation — inflows to NEAR, XRP, PEAQ, VIRTUAL; outflows from S, WLFI, XPL, ASTER, ADA, HBAR (selling pressure as traders trimmed exposure in higher-beta names).

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🪙 Privacy Coins Surge as Traders Seek On-Chain Confidentiality

The standout theme of the week was the resurgence of privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, which have collectively added over 38% to their market capitalization — now at $29.9 billion — far outpacing the broader market’s 1% daily gain.

Zcash (ZEC) led the rally, soaring 35% on the day and an extraordinary 1,700% over the past three months. Analysts point to a combination of renewed privacy demand, technical upgrades such as expanded shielded pools and Zashi wallet integration, and momentum-driven flows as catalysts.

Industry participants note that this is not a repeat of the 2017 privacy coin hype cycle but a more mature rotation reflecting both regulatory fatigue and positioning in thin markets. As Maja Vujinovic of FG Nexus remarked, “People who want privacy are drifting back on-chain, and traders are piling into anything with big upside because liquidity in the big coins is thin."

ZEC’s structural design — including a fixed 21 million supply, PoW consensus, and zk-SNARK-enabled transactions — is drawing comparisons to an “encrypted Bitcoin.” Renewed attention from prominent investors like Arthur Hayes and Barry Silbert has further amplified capital inflows.

The rally has lifted the entire privacy category, with Railgun (RAIL) up 50%, Litecoin (LTC) up 20%, and Monero (XMR) up 14% week-on-week, underscoring renewed interest in decentralized privacy infrastructure.

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🧭 Prediction Markets Hit Record Volumes

Prediction markets had their strongest month on record in October, with Kalshi and Polymarket processing a combined $7.4 billion in volume — nearly double the previous record set during the 2024 U.S. election cycle.The surge was largely driven by sports betting, as both platforms capitalized on the U.S. tax law changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will reduce the deductible percentage of gambling losses from 100% to 90% starting in 2026. This shift may be motivating high-volume bettors and institutions to explore prediction markets for potential tax efficiency and yield alternatives.

• Kalshi processed $4.4 billion in October, with over $1.1 billion in sports markets alone
• Polymarket recorded $3 billion, including $357 million in sports betting volume
• Speculation around future token airdrops from both venues has also driven activity, particularly for Polymarket, whose decentralized architecture and UMA-linked oracle framework make a native token launch plausible.
• DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird, a legacy sports prediction market that will clear through Polymarket’s infrastructure, further blurs the line between traditional sports betting and crypto-native prediction ecosystems..

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👉 Outlook

The short-term picture remains balanced but fragile. Liquidity is improving and ETFs keep drawing capital, yet speculative positioning is stretched and macro volatility lingers.

• Privacy narrative likely to stay dominant as traders chase thematic plays.
• Prediction markets illustrate continued growth in tokenized finance.
• Institutions continue to treat pullbacks as accumulation opportunities into a potential December rate-cut window.

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📆 Key Themes to Watch Next Week

• ‍Tuesday: Westpac Consumer Confidence, NAB Business Confidence, UK Unemployment Rate‍
• Thursday: Australia Unemployment Rate, UK GDP Growth (QoQ, YoY, MoM)‍
• Friday: China Industrial Production & Retail Sales, U.S. CPI & Core Inflation

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📅 Missed last week’s update? Catch up on all headlines in the previous Portofino Mint.

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘎𝘗𝘛.

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