Portofino Mint - 2 November 2025

🚀 𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗼 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘁!

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🌍 At a glance:

Markets stepped into October with a mix of cautious optimism and policy recalibration. The Federal Reserve’s 25bp rate cut — while widely anticipated — came wrapped in a hawkish message that reined in expectations for another move in December. Equities held firm, led by US mega-cap tech, while global central banks maintained a data-dependent stance as inflation and growth remain delicately balanced.

Digital assets traded in tight ranges as investors weighed shifting macro signals against thinning liquidity. Bitcoin steadied above USD 107k amid muted ETF flows, while select altcoins drew speculative attention on the back of fresh narratives. Meanwhile, institutional developments continued to reshape the crypto landscape.

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🏢 Macro and technicals: 

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bp to a 3.75–4.00% band last week, but Chair Powell’s tone was notably firmer than markets had priced. He pushed back on expectations for another near-term cut, arguing that the Fed “must see clearer evidence” before loosening further. Futures now imply just a 68% chance of another 25bp move, down from nearly full probability days earlier.

The split within the Committee — with two dissenting votes — highlights growing tension between those focused on curbing inflation and those wary of weakening labour data. Powell also noted the data blackout from the ongoing government shutdown, signalling that the Fed will tread carefully until visibility improves.

Equities held firm post-Fed, led once again by US tech giants — with NVIDIA briefly topping USD 5 trillion a symbol of how narrow this bull market has become.

Globally, policy divergence defined the week: a Trump–Xi trade truce steadied risk appetite, while the ECB stayed patient and the BoJ hinted at tightening — though markets remain unconvinced.

Gold entered correction territory, falling more than 10% from recent highs as investors rotated into equities. US 10-year yields edged up to 4.08%, and the DXY strengthened modestly to 104.2, reflecting steady risk appetite rather than outright risk aversion.

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🪙 Digital Assets

‍In crypto markets, volatility continues to compress. Bitcoin traded quietly between USD 107k–110k, with ETF outflows and lighter derivatives positioning signalling indecision rather than conviction. The market’s muted response to the Fed decision underlines its current balance — neither bearish capitulation nor bullish breakout.

‍Altcoins showed signs of life but for narrative reasons rather than fundamentals. ASTER rallied 30% following a social media post from Binance’s founder CZ, while Vitalik Buterin’s comments on privacy sparked renewed interest in ZK-focused projects. These short bursts of momentum highlight the market’s speculative undertone — selective enthusiasm amid broader caution.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s best-performing month, averaging over 40% returns in the past decade. While history doesn’t always repeat, the combination of lighter positioning, easing macro risk, and improving liquidity conditions sets the stage for a potentially constructive end to Q4 — albeit on a steadier trajectory than past cycles.

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🏛️ Institutions Double Down:

• DBS and Goldman Sachs executed the first-ever interbank OTC crypto options trade, using cash-settled BTC and ETH options — a landmark step for institutional derivatives.
• Tether reported USD 10 billion in year-to-date profits, eclipsing several US banking peers and reinforcing its position as the industry’s cash flow powerhouse.
• Mastercard is reportedly in late-stage talks to acquire Zerohash for USD 1.5–2 billion, strengthening its stablecoin infrastructure capabilities.
• Consensys is preparing for a public listing, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan advising on the process.‍
• Western Union announced plans to launch a stablecoin, citing digital wallet usage now surpassing 50% of its transaction base.

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💎 Ecosystem developments

• Binance US enabled trading for the Trump family’s WLFI token, further linking political and crypto market narratives.
• Coinbase beat expectations with USD 1.9 billion in Q3 revenue, up 26% QoQ, and EPS of USD 1.50, outperforming consensus estimates.
• Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade passed its final Hoodi testnet rehearsal, clearing the way for mainnet activation.
• Tether, TRON, and TRM Labs jointly seized over USD 300 million in illicit crypto via the new T3 compliance unit.

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📆 Key Themes to Watch Next Week

• ‍Monday: UK & US Manufacturing PMI (Oct); US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct); US Construction Spending (Sep)
• ‍Wednesday: US Supreme Court Tariff Hearing; UK & US Services PMIs (Oct); US ADP & ISM Services (Oct)
• ‍Thursday: BoE & Norges Bank Announcements; US Challenger Layoffs (Oct)
• ‍Friday: Chinese Trade Balance (Oct)

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📅 Missed last week’s update? Catch up on all headlines in the previous Portofino Mint.

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘎𝘗𝘛.

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