Portofino Mint - 30 June

🚀 Welcome to the Portofino Mint!

🔥 Hot takeaway

‍
- June saw a resurgence of institutional crypto adoption
- Bitcoin spot ETFs added $1.37B in net inflows, and Ethereum inflows exceeded $528M in a single week. (see article here)
- Meanwhile, Circle's spectacular IPO (+168%) and Senate passage of the GENIUS Act cemented the rise of regulated stablecoins.

‍

🗞️ Week in Review

- Circle’s USDC climbs to $66B, securing a Luxembourg license to expand in Europe.
- Metaplanet commits $5B to its U.S. arm as it pursues 210,000 BTC by 2027.
- Tether acquires 10%+ of Juventus, continuing its expansion into global sports.
- Chinese broker GF Securities launches tokenized securities, fueling a 90% rally in HashKey’s HSK token.

‍

📉 Technicals & Macro

- Bitcoin held strong (~$105K) after rebounding from sub-$100K levels earlier in the week. Despite a shaky macro backdrop—elevated PCE, a negative GDP print, and Trump threatening to halt trade talks with Canada—markets remain risk-on. S&P 500 hit all-time highs, and crypto followed suit.
- Volatility across BTC and ETH has remained surprisingly low given geopolitical tensions. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped stabilize sentiment, but the Strait of Hormuz issue lingers unresolved.
- BTC remains dominant. $1.3B in weekly inflows into IBIT, coupled with Strategy’s latest buy (bringing their BTC stack above $63B), shows continued institutional interest. Meanwhile, crypto-exposed equities (Coinbase, Circle) pulled back 10–15%, showing potential divergence in the crypto-stock correlation narrative.
On the ETF front, 9 issuers have now filed for Solana spot ETFs, with Bloomberg assigning a 90% approval probability—potentially as soon as July.

‍
🔎 Macro & Market Watch

- FedWatch still pricing no rate cut for July, but expectations grow for September.
- 30Y Treasury yields remain elevated, signaling long-term inflation worries.
- DXY continues to fall, showing broad dollar weakness.
- Gold holds firm, with rotation into bearer assets (BTC, gold) still underway.
- Retail leverage remains tame – upside room remains, especially if sentiment persists.

‍
🟧 Bitcoin & Treasury Adoption

- Bakkt files $1B shelf offering with BTC as part of treasury strategy.
- GameStop raises $2.7B via convertibles; potential BTC allocation under review.
- Metaplanet allocates $5B to expand its Bitcoin treasury footprint.
- Trump Media files for BTC/ETH ETFs, adding regulatory complexity during election season.
- Texas signs bill to allow BTC in state reserves.

‍
🌐 Web3 & Infrastructure

- Moonveil launches $MORE token, with support from Binance Alpha and top CEXs.
- Jumper Exchange adds Etherlink, expanding interoperability to 50+ blockchains.
- InfoFi tokenizes data using AI and blockchain, entering the attention economy.
- Edwin terminal brings AI-powered, chat-based DeFi access to users.
‍

🧬 Ecosystem & Tokens

- Sol Strategies launches Solana Ecosystem Reserve, backing Jito with 52,181 JTO.
- VeChain eyes $0.03–$0.05 breakout ahead of July 1 Stargate upgrade.
- Dogecoin at $0.16 – analysts skeptical on $20 price target.
- Cardano (ADA) faces pressure from whale dumping, weak metrics, and sliding DeFi activity.
- Nano Labs to buy up to $1B of BNB, starting with a $500M deal.

‍
🏛️ Regulation

- Ripple vs. SEC ends after 5 years, but judge upholds institutional sales restrictions.
- Kraken gets MiCA license in Ireland, expanding reach across 30 EU states.
- Sen. Schiff proposes crypto conflict-of-interest bill for U.S. officeholders.

‍
🔭 What to Watch Next Week

- US NFP (Thu): Expected at 129k (vs. 139k prior); upside surprise could delay rate cuts.
- ISM PMIs (Tue/Thu): Watch for tariff-driven pressure in services & manufacturing.
- Euro zone CPI (Tue): Key for ECB cut path – France/Spain prints were hot.
- China PMIs (Mon/Thu): Recovery unclear despite trade thaw.
- BoJ Tankan (Tue): Sentiment may weaken, especially in export-sensitive sectors

‍

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘎𝘗𝘛.

‍