Portofino Mint - 2 February 2026

🚀 Welcome to the Portofino Mint!

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📊 Cryptos at a Glance

Crypto markets remain under heavy pressure, with Bitcoin trading near its lowest levels since late 2024 and Ethereum back to price zones last seen before the ETF-driven rally. Volatility has picked up materially, risk appetite is thin, and positioning remains defensive as investors reassess macro trajectories, rates, and regulatory risk. Sentiment indicators are firmly in “risk-off” territory, reflecting a market more focused on capital preservation than upside convexity.

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📊 Key Market Levels

• BTC: $77,796 (day range $74,609–$78,774).
• ETH: $2,283.71 (day range $2,163–$2,417).
• XRP: $1.62 (day range $1.53–$1.65).
• Sentiment: Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 14 (“Extreme Fear”) as volatility spiked.

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🪙 Macro Overview

• Fed chair reset becomes the macro headline: President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve, shifting rate-path expectations back into focus (confirmation risk now becomes a market variable).
• Rates stayed on hold — but the labor week matters: the Fed has been holding policy rates at 3.5%–3.75%, and the market is now keying off labor prints for the next move.
• Stablecoins are now explicitly framed as “deposit competition”: Standard Chartered warned US banks could lose up to $500bn in deposits to stablecoins by 2028, adding fuel to the Washington fight over whether stablecoins can offer yield via third parties.

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🌐 Project & Token Highlights

• Ethereum came under renewed pressure as U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded nearly $1bn in combined net outflows in a single day, one of the largest daily withdrawals since launch, reinforcing the broader risk-off move across majors.
• Vitalik Buterin withdrew 16,384 ETH (roughly $40m) as the Ethereum Foundation entered what it described as a period of “mild austerity,” with funds earmarked for long-term protocol security, privacy, and ecosystem support.
• Ripple secured a full Electronic Money Institution (EMI) licence from Luxembourg’s regulator, granting it passporting rights across the EU and significantly strengthening its regulated payments footprint in Europe.

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🏛️ Regulatory Updates

• Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority confirmed it expects to issue its first stablecoin issuer licences in March 2026, with approvals limited to a small number of operators under a tightly controlled regime.
• The U.S. Treasury, through OFAC, sanctioned two UK-registered crypto exchanges for the first time, targeting platforms allegedly linked to Iran-connected financial networks and marking a sharp escalation in sanctions enforcement against crypto infrastructure.
• In the U.S., stablecoin regulation moved further into focus as policymakers and banking groups publicly framed stablecoins as direct competitors to bank deposits, intensifying debate over whether yield-bearing structures should be permitted.

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🏢 Institutional Developments

• Fidelity announced “Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD)”, a USD-pegged stablecoin on Ethereum, expected to be available in the coming weeks with 1:1 mint/redeem at $1/unit
• Nomura’s crypto arm, Laser Digital, posted December-quarter trading losses while advancing plans for a U.S. national trust bank charter, signaling a pivot toward regulated market infrastructure.
• Abu Dhabi / Trump-linked venture stake: A group backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan agreed a $500m investment for ~49% of World Liberty Financial, intensifying scrutiny around politics-capital-crypto overlaps.

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📆 What to Watch Next Week

• Tue Feb 3: JOLTS (US job openings) — watch for confirmation of cooling labor demand.
• Mon Feb 2 & Wed Feb 4: ISM Manufacturing / ISM Services — softening here reinforces “cuts sooner” narratives.
• Fri Feb 6: US Non-Farm Payrolls (January report) — the week’s main macro catalyst for rates + risk assets.
• All week: multiple Fed speakers scheduled — any messaging shift matters more than usual given the chair nomination backdrop.

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📅 Missed last week’s update? Catch up on all headlines in the previous Portofino Mint.

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘎𝘗𝘛.

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